What I think will win:
Picture: Boyhood
Director: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Actor: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Actress: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
Supporting Actor: JK Simmons (Whiplash)
Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Original Screenplay: Birdman
Adapted Screenplay: Whiplash
Animated Film: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Foreign Film: Ida
What I think
should win (out of the nominees) based on what I've seen:
Picture: Boyhood
Director: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Actor: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
Actress: Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) - only film I've seen in this category
Supporting Actor: JK Simmons (Whiplash)
Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Original Screenplay: Boyhood
Adapted Screenplay: Inherent Vice
Animated Film: The Tale of Princess Kaguya
What I think are really the best from each category during the past year:
Picture: Boyhood
Director: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
Actor: Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) or Brendan Gleeson (Calvary)
Actress: Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars) or Jennifer Kent (The Babadook)
Supporting Actor: JK Simmons (Whiplash)
Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Original Screenplay: Calvary
Adapted Screenplay: Inherent Vice
Animated Film: The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Foreign Film: The Raid 2
Stunt work (not a real category but absolutely should be): The Raid 2
As for my thoughts on the oscars themselves: who cares? It's just a bunch of old Hollywood luvvies patting themselves on their backs for their ultra-conservative choices. Where is Maps to the Stars? Where is Calvary? Where is Frank? Or Interstellar? Or Winter Sleep? Or Blue Ruin? Or The Babadook? Oh that's right, they're not traditional biopics, or they're foreign, or they're part of a genre which are ignored by the septuagenarian troglodytes whose feet are stuck to the middle of the road. Not that their award will improve the films' artistic integrity.